Rabu, 22 Agustus 2012

Money Talks: Can EPL clubs be profitable?


Did Arsene Wenger do the right thing when he refused to increase Robin van Persie's salary, thus sold Arsenal's top scorer to ManUtd?

Has Sir Alex Ferguson gone mad when he offered £225k/week salary to RvP? 
RvP probably earns more money PER WEEK than avg ivy league-MBA graduates earn PER YEAR

Will Roman Abramovich and Sheikh Mansour make profit after they poured tons of money to Chelsea and Manchester City?

Those were headlines in the newspapers, blogs, and also my questions for the past one month.

I am a gooner, yet when it comes to tactics, wonderkid players, history of each clubs, and all about transfer rumours, i know very little.

Yet, having a bit finance background, i always have one question in my mind:

Can EPL footbal clubs be profitable business?
    
Then after gathered some data from the internet, my answer is: 

YES, they can... and they should be, if they want EPL to be sustainable....

In this blog, i will show my simple analysis on Financial condition of top 6 EPL clubs: 

  1. Arsenal 
  2. Chelsea 
  3. Liverpool
  4. Manchester United 
  5. Manchester City 
  6. Tottenham

This financial analysis is based on each club's financial report for 2010-11 season, so this is not 2011-12 season when ManCity win EPL. 
This analysis also excluded players' transfer transaction happened after 2010-11 season (e.g Nasri to ManCity, Fabregas to Barcelona, etc).
Most of the raw data is available online (you can google it) and i used most data from "Telegraph" website here and from Deloitte's Football Money League report.


Who has the highest revenue?

Answer: Manchester United

With £331 mn of total revenue, ManUtd revenue is 30% higher than Arsenal, and even 50% higher than Oil-billionaire-backed Chelsea. 31% of ManUtd revenue was coming from its "Commercial" contracts (i.e contract with sponsors) vs only 20% and 25% of Arsenal's and Chelsea's revenue were coming from "commercial". 
The higher portion of commercial contract for ManUtd was mainly due to its bigger brand name compare to other top-6 clubs. ManUtd also has better marketing personals who "sold" their brand strategically to other companies, such as DHL who gave £40mn to ManUtd just to put their logo on ManUtd's training jersey! (not even main jersey!)   


ManUtd has the highest revenue among all top-6 clubs








Who is the most generous? (to pay salary)

Answer: Manchester City

Manchester City paid more for salary cost than it can get from its revenue, what a great business practice! 
That what you have to do when you signed a bunch of world-class player. 

Actually, ManCity was only the 2nd highest salary payer (after Chelsea), but because their revenue was the lowest among top-6 clubs, the proportion of salary cost was even higher than its revenue.

On the other side, Arsenal and ManUtd were playing a relatively healthy business practice, with salary cost only represents 49% and 46% of their total revenue.

ManCity: Too generous to its players?

Who has the highest operating profit?

Answer: Manchester United

To calculate operating profit, i used EBITDA (Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization).

ManUtd higher revenue combine with its relatively low salary cost had resulted in highest operating profit among top-6 clubs. 
ManUtd operating profit reached £108mn during 2010-11 season, this was almost double than Arsenal's operating profit.

On the other hand, ManCity great business philosophy had resulted in £105mn operating profit loss during the same year. 
Yes, this loss was barely 1% of Sheikh Mansour's total wealth (approx. £15bn), but to put things into perspective, with £105mn you can buy 8,300 units of small MPV cars in Indonesia (Toyota Avanza), you can also buy 1,600 medium-size houses in Jakarta's suburb area (BSD).   

Different sides of Manchester: One Profitable - One Financial Disaster



Who has more debt?

Answer: Manchester United

Unfortunately for ManUtd, their great financial performance had to be hampered by its huge pile of debt.
After Glazer's £790mn leverage buyout in 2005, ManUtd still had the highest debt level compare to other top-6 clubs in EPL.
This huge debt burden has made not only ManUtd financial position unstable but also made ManUtd  to pay more than  £50mn of interest expense every single year vs only  £17mn of interest expense for Arsenal.

ManUtd: Huge debt after Glazer's Leverage Buyout







Who has more money to buy new players?

Answer: Manchester United

Even after paying huge interest expense, ManUtd still has significant amount of money for Sir Alex to sign new players that he wants.

This calculation is based on assumption that the club will pay new players' signing fee from club's own operating profit and not from additional cash given by club's owner. 

That's why Manchester City's Free Cash Flow is negative as it should not be able to buy new players unless Sheikh Mansour pour another tons of money to the club.  

Sir Alex has tons of money to be spent on new players

Can EPL clubs be profitable?

So, back to our initial question: 

1) Can EPL clubs be profitable?

The data shows YES, they can...
ManUtd, Arsenal, and Spurs have shown that is doable. 

2) Did Arsene Wenger do the right thing when he refused to increased Robin van Persie's 
salary, thus sold Arsenal's top scorer to ManUtd?

Probably not, Arsenal's financial condition is not as good as ManUtd's. 
So, increasing RvP's salary will only trigger another players to ask for the same thing, thus it may decrease club's profitability (not to mention RvP's old age, injury history, etc. but this is not the scope of this blog)

3) Has Sir Alex Ferguson gone mad when he offered £225k/week salary to RvP? 

Probably not, with ManUtd's sound financial condition, Sir Alex may have bigger flexibility to increase players' salary. 
RvP's signing may also increase ManUtd revenue from merchandise sales etc. 

4) Will Roman Abramovich and Sheikh Mansour make profit after they poured tons of money to Chelsea and Manchester City?


Abramovich became Chelsea's owner in June 2003 and after 8 years, Chelsea still made £3.5mn operating profit loss. 
Yes, this loss has been in downward trend since June 2005 when Chelsea recorded £140mn loss. 
But still, 8 years pouring tons of cash with no profit? come on.. you gotta be kidding me :)

Can you buy EPL title? 
yes you can.. Chelsea and ManCity have proven it.

Can you make profit after pouring tons of cash into one club?
I hope so, even after 8 years, Chelsea still not making any profit.
I hope Abramovich and Sheikh Mansour have lot of patience to see their investments grow.

5) What if UEFA Financial Fair Play be implemented completely?

Hmm, this is quite tricky question.
If the summary of this new regulation is "to prevent professional football clubs spending more than they earn".
I may interpret this statement by saying: "club's Operating profit (EBITDA) should be positive."

Well, this is a good news for clubs with positive operating profit like ManUtd, Arsenal, and Spurs.

But probably bad news for ManCity, Chelsea, and Liverpool, as they need to increase their operating profit level. 
To do this, they can either: 

  1. Increase their revenue by increasing ticket price, boosting marketing activity like ManUtd did, or 
  2. They can start to cut cost by lowering players' salary or selling some players which has high salary.


















Jumat, 02 Mei 2008

Skripsi dan ketamakan manusia....

hari ini gw lagi2 kejar tayang skripsi :)

yah gini deh, klo blom bisa multi tasking...
harus fokus ama satu kerjaan dulu, baru bisa ngerjain yang lainnya....

jadi skripsi gw ini tentang warren buffett...
gw pgn liat gmn cara dia ngbikn portfolio nya..
trus bisa gw aplikasiin gak di market indonesia...

skrg baru aja cari bahan referensi si...
tapi dari cari bahan itu, gw jadi ngeliat banyak hal di dunia ini :)


contoh...
harga minyak dunia yang hampir nembus $120/barrel
kasus subprime mortgage di amerika...
berguguranya para investment banking di dunia...
jatuhnya harga saham dunia...
melonjaknya harga komoditas...

kelaparan di afrika..
global warming...
ketakutan akan naiknya BBM di indonesia...
sampe Cina yang nyerang Tibet...

mungkin sebagian orang itu cuma sekelabat berita yang mereka baca di berbagai koran atau halaman internet ya?

mungkin juga cuma bahan makalah..
ato cerita yang lo denger dari dosen ato bokap lo ..
yang males lo dengerin...

trus dalam pikiran lo (sama kayak pikiran gw)
emg apa hubungannya ama gw?
nyape2in pikiran gw aja...
hidup gw udah rumit...
gak usah dibikin rumit lagi deh!!!!

tapi lo semua pernah mikir or nyadar gak sih?

semua itu deket bgt lo sama kehidupan kita sehari2....
lo nyadar gak si.... ?
bahwa selama ini lo hidup gara2 diatur sama
Satu INVISIBLE HAND -nya mbah Adam Smith itu?

pernah nanya gak ama diri lo sendiri....

knapa gw bangun, makan, trus kuliah, bikin tugas, bikin skripsi ,
dapet nilai, trus kompre, ngelamar kerja...
nyari duit, beli rumah, beli mobil...?

berkeluarga....

trus tua ...
meninggal deh....

itu semua kemauan lo sendiri?
apa cuma sistem yang udah nyuruh lo begitu?

apa ke-TAKUT-an lo sekaligus ke-TAMAK-an lo sebagai manusia (gw juga sih) ?

can u see?

kerontokan perekonomian dunia dan semua nightmare yang gw tulis di paling atas...
itu semua berasal dari 1 doktrin yang selalu dikasih ke kita (sebagai anak ekonomi)

SCARCITY.....

itu satu kata yang paling ngejerumusin manusia...
doktrin yang bilang klo segala sesuatu di dunia itu langka, makanya lo harus berjuang abis2an buat ngedapetin yang lo mau...

bahwa peningkatan bahan makanan hanya dengan deret hitung,,,,,
sedangkan pertmbuhan manusia dengan deret ukur
(jadi gak akan ada cukup makanan di dunia ini...)

satu kata itu parah bgt efeknya...
ada 2 efek yang paling parah...

1. Takut
2. Tamak

Manusia jadi takut klo dia gak bisa mencukupi kebutuhannya sendiri...
gak bisa mencukupi kebutuhan keluarganya...
akhirnya mereka kerja siang malam buat ngejar impian mereka sendiri...
impian yang gak akan ada habisnya....

Takut juga berimplikasi lain...
manusia jadi amat tamak, sekali dia bisa mendapatkan apa yang dia mau...
dia langsung mau semuanya...
dia gak mau kesenangna yang dia punya lepas dari dia...
dia mau semuanya...
walau itu berarti harus menghancurkan manusia lain....

contoh paling gampang...

krisis subprime mortgage di amerika...
ini cuma pendapat gw aja...
sama beberapa opini yang gw denger (dari dosen, koran dll)

intinya sih klo lo pgn bli rumah ada KPR (kredit kepemilikan rumah) kan?
nah klo lo pgn ngajuin KPR pasti ada syarat2 nya tuh...
klo lo lolos syarat lo disebut PRIME MORTGAGE...

nah krn karena perbankan amerika lagi kebanjiran duit (likuiditas) [ini terjadi sejak adanya rezim devisa bebas "Brent wood system]

n mereka (para bank itu) harus memberikan return yang gede ... supaya bisa dapet bonus gede (tamak) ...
akhirnya mereka ngasih pinjeman KPR ke orang yang sebenernya gak qualified2 amat..
n seperti kita tahu...
klo lo gak gitu qualified...
suku bunga pinjaman lo pastinya lebih tinggi ketimbang
suku bunga orang yang qualified kan?

nah ...
suatu ketika...
mbah Alan Greenspan naikin Fed Rate (anggep aja BI rate nya amerika)
nah klo Fed Rate naik...
ya bunga pinjaman naik juga lah...

nah ini serunya....
saat suku bunga pinjaman naik..
para pemegang Subprime mortgage itu juga di naikin kan bunga nya?
nah lo bayangin aja...
mereka itu org yang gak gitu qualified...
intinya sih mereka orang rada miskin (secara finansial)

pas suku bunga dinaikin...
apa yang terjadi?

mereka gak bisa bayar KPR!!!!!
istilah kerennya si default....

lalu knapa bisa bikin ambruk pasar uang sedunia?????

nah si subprime mortgage ini dijadiiin ABS (Asset Backed Security)
sama para investment banking..
intinya sih mereka ingin menciptakan suatu instrumen investasi yang punya return gede... (krn ada junk bond nya)
tapi resiko nya rendah (krn ada mortgage nya)

nah mereka mikir, klo mortgage sih... resikonya rendah lah....
masa satu amerika gak bisa bayar KPR semua????

nyata nya
SATU AMERIKA emg gak bisa byr KPR semua :D

ya krn orng amerika gak bisa bayar KPR ...
akhirnya sekuritas yang dijamin oleh mortgage itu gak berharga sama sekali....

dijadiin kertas bungkus aja kayaknya gak ada yang mau tuh :)
hehe....

singkat kata hancurlah kondisi investment banking di seluruh dunia....

nah kerena para investment banking itu rugi..
mereka berusaha menutupi kerugiannya...

dengan apa???

ya jual saham2 yg mereka punya di seluruh dunia....
klo istilah pasarnya sih "market DIGUYUR"
masalahnya yang GUYUR bukan cuma satu...

tapi hampir semua bandar ngeGUYUR market!!!!
hancurlah semua bursa di dunia....


nah ada lagi nih turunan dari subprime mortgage...

tiba2 nilai dollar US menurun..
banyak faktor sih, tapi intinya org mikir perekonomian US bakal melambat....

nah melemahnya nilai dollar ini memicu naiknya harga minyak dunia...
bayangin aja klo lo org eropa ...
lo bisa beli minyak dengan harga yang relatif lebih murah....
krn Euro super menguat ketimbang Dollar US

emg sih byk faktor yang mempengaruhi harga minyak...
salah satu nya karena ketamakan (lagi2) para investor di Nymex sana!!!!
klo menurut presiden OPEC...
harga minyak itu naik bukan karena under supply ato over demand...

tapi karena rendahnya nilai dollar US n krn SPEKULASI!!!!!

yah lo bayangin deh....
lo fund manager....

tahun lalu lo udah rugi bgt di subprime...
blom di saham.... (rugi lo juga parah)

lo pgn main forex...
lagi gak gede returnnya...
lo mau bli Bonds return nya juga gak gede...

padahal bonus lo dihitung tergantung return dari portfolio lo....
ya... karena lo pgn bli ferrari F430 SCUDERIA yang terbaru...
ya mau gak mau lo beli future minyak..
yang return nya gede parah!!!!!!!

walhasil...
harga minyak melambung tinggi....
hampir nembus $120/barrel (rekor tertinggi, klo gak salah)

harga minyak naik, menimbulkan satu lagi masalah baru....
harga komoditas naik...
termasuk komoditas pangan....

wahai broker di Nymex...
lo gak mikir apa..
gara2 lo, berapa banyak orang di afrika kelaparan...
gara2 gak mampu bli makan?????

TAPI....

kyknya Indonesia tenang2 aja ya????

YAIYALAH!!!!
kita ini kan negara subsidi...
jadi semuanya masih di subsidi....
pemerintah juga bilang, mereka gak akan naikin harga minyak....

padahal.....

beban APBN udh byk bgt....

defisitnya aja.. masih gak tau mau nambel dari mana...
klo gak salah ADB nolak permintaan pinjaman dari Indonesia...

padahal subsidi pemerintah buat PLN aja gede bgt!!!
klo gak salah..
subsidi tahun 2007 itu naik hampir 3x lipat ketimbang tahun 2005 !!!!

gimana subsidi BBM???

klo pikiran bego gw sih...
kyknya APBN kita gak gitu kuat lagi ngasih subsidi ...
apalagi klo Harga minyak nyampe $150/barrel...

padahal OPEC prediksi bakal ke $200 ,
CANADA lebih serem lagi...
mereka bilang minyak bisa ke $225/barrel!!!!!

bisa lo banyangin klo Subsidi BBM di cabut....
harga2 naik semua...
inflasi melambung tinggi...
NPL bank naik parah,,, krn pengusaha gak bisa banyar utang....
saham ambruk....

bakal ada histeria masa yang gila2 an...
mungkin 1998 keulang lagi????

Mudah2an tulisan gw ini gak bener ya....
serem juga klo ngebanyangin akibat nya...

ya tulisan gw ini cuma intermezzo gw bikin skripsi doang kok :)

mudah2an bisa ngejelasin sedikit kondisi ekonomi dunia dari kaca mata gw...
sori klo ada yang tersinggung dan sori klo data nya gak valid ato cuma ngomong doang....

yah paling gak, bisa ngebuat kita semua mikir n nyadarin apa yang ada disekiling kita kan?

ntar gw sambung lagi deh.....